Nats rally in the eighth off Braves bullpen
Baseball Betting Lines
07/04/2009 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Dunn hit his 300th career home run and drove in the go-ahead run with an RBI single during a four-run eighth, as Washington topped Atlanta, 5-3, halting the Braves' season-high win streak at five games.
John Lannan (6-5) was sharp in posting his fourth straight victory. The lefty tossed eight innings and yielded three runs on nine hits and a walk. Mike MacDougal earned his fourth save of the year with a scoreless ninth.
Ryan Zimmerman had a two-run single and Josh Willingham added an RBI single in the pivotal eighth frame. The Nationals snapped a four-game slide and won for just the second time in eight games.
Tommy Hanson, searching for a fifth straight victory, was superb on the hill for Atlanta. The rookie right-hander limited the Nats to a single run and three hits, walking one and fanning five in seven innings.
However, the Braves bullpen wasted the effort and was tagged for four runs on four hits and two walks in the eighth. Nate McLouth, Chipper Jones and Garret Anderson knocked in the runs for Atlanta.
The visitors took a 3-1 lead into the eighth but Mike Gonzalez (3-1) proceeded to load the bases with one out, walking two and giving up a single. Peter Moylan entered from the pen to allow Zimmerman's game-tying two-run single to center.
Eric O'Flaherty came on in relief and immediately gave up the lead with RBI singles by Dunn and Willingham allowing for a 5-3 Washington lead. O'Flaherty struck out the next two batters to hold the deficit at two but the Nationals' bullpen held firm as MacDougal worked around a pair of walks in the ninth to nail down the win.
The Braves got on the board in the third when Brooks Conrad led off with a base hit, moved up a bag on Hanson's sacrifice and raced home on McLouth's single to center.
Atlanta padded its lead by two in the sixth. McLouth walked and Martin Prado put runners at second and third with a double to left. Jones and Anderson hit back-to-back run-scoring singles to center for a 3-0 margin.
Hanson, meanwhile, retired 18 of the first 20 batters he faced and did not allow a runner past first base until Dunn smoked a leadoff home run out to right in the seventh. Hanson set down the next three, though, before giving way to Gonzalez in the eighth.
Game Notes
Atlanta has won five of its eight matchups with the Nats this season after Washington took 12 of the 18 meetings a year ago...Since allowing six runs in his major league-debut on June 7, Hanson has surrendered just three earned runs 30 innings. His recent accolades earned him National League Rookie of the Month honors for June...It was also Dunn's 22nd home run of the season...McLouth and Anderson had two hits apiece in defeat...Atlanta ended 3- for-10 with runners in scoring position.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.